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Prediction for CME (2022-05-25T18:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-05-25T18:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20339/-1
CME Note: Visible in the SW in STEREO A COR2 and in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. Moves quickly through C2 FOV. Associated with eruption in vicinity of AR 13016 (S18W42), visible in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 beginning 2022-05-25T18:01Z.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-05-28T10:11Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2022 May 26 1250 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 20526
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 26 May 2022, 1248UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 26 May 2022 until 28 May 2022)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 May 2022  10CM FLUX: 137 / AP: 008
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 May 2022  10CM FLUX: 138 / AP: 022
PREDICTIONS FOR 28 May 2022  10CM FLUX: 139 / AP: 019

COMMENT: Over the past 24 hours, solar flaring activity has been moderate, with the flare of the largest X-ray output the M1.3-class flare, peak time May 25 18:24UTC, from former NOAA AR 3016. NOAA AR 3014 is about to rotate off the visible disc. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares can be expected, M-class flares are possible and there is a change of X-class flares.

A coronal mass ejection was detected by CACTus on LASCO/C2 data at May 25 18:36UTC, associated with recorded radio emissions and the M1.3-class flare . Analysis showed a glancing blow for about mid-May 28 cannot be excluded.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours, pending flaring activity. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It can be expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the magnetic field values fluctuated between 1 and 6nT, while Bz had values between -4 and +5 nT. The solar wind speed did not exceed the 390 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle switched to the negative sector (towards the Sun) around May 25 22:00UTC. Over the next 24 hours, we are expecting to see the effects from high speed stream of the negative polarity coronal hole.
Over the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet. Over the next 24 hours, quiet to unsettled conditions can be expected, with a small chance of isolated active periods.

Lead Time: 45.25 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2022-05-26T12:56Z

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